New WEF barometer shows trade and capital links hold steady but evolve amid geopolitical flux
Global collaboration has not collapsed under rising geopolitical strains, but its shape and direction are shifting according to a new report.
The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 released by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company charts cooperation across five areas — trade and capital, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security — finding that while overall cooperation remains close to recent levels, the traditional forms of multilateral engagement are weakening and being replaced by more tailored, often regional or issue-specific alliances.
Cooperation on trade and capital has flattened compared with earlier years, though it remains above pre-pandemic levels. Goods trade volumes continue to expand but at a slower pace than global GDP growth, and capital flows are increasingly guided by alignment among politically compatible partners. Services trade and targeted capital movements — especially those that support domestic industrial strength — show areas of momentum.
Innovation and technology cooperation has strengthened, unlocking shared capabilities even amid tighter controls on flows of certain technologies. Meanwhile, climate cooperation has expanded with increased financing and broader clean technology deployment, though it still falls short of global targets. Health cooperation has remained stable, despite pressures on development assistance, while the peace and security pillar has continued to weaken.
For market participants, the barometer’s findings suggest that global economic risks are not translating into wholesale de-globalization, but rather into segmented cooperation. This nuanced evolution of trade and capital links underscores the importance of:
- Diversified market exposure where aligned economic blocs are strengthening ties,
- Monitoring fragmented capital flows that may divert away from broad multilateral pools into more strategic, partnership-driven financing
- Assessing geopolitical risk as a structural factor influencing supply chains, investment gateways, and capital allocation
In an era of ongoing geopolitical tension, the Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 conveys that while traditional multilateralism grapples with headwinds, targeted collaboration continues to shape the investment landscape.
