Latest index shows consumer sentiment stuck around 50, with soft forward outlook
Canadian consumer sentiment has entered 2026 with little momentum as Canadians weigh ongoing economic concerns and geopolitical unrest.
The lack of movement in the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index which remains essentially unchanged in early January, offers few directional signals for markets and spending trends. The latest weekly report from Nanos Research, based on data through January 9, shows the overall BNCCI at 50.07, only a slight increase from 49.91 recorded four weeks earlier.
The index’s 12-month high of 53.07 highlights how current confidence remains well below stronger sentiment levels seen over the past year.
The BNCCI combines two components: the Pocketbook Index, which tracks Canadians’ views of their personal finances and job security, and the Expectations Index, which reflects outlooks for the broader economy and real estate prices. A reading of 50 is considered neutral, indicating an equal balance between positive and negative sentiment.
For the week ending January 9, the Pocketbook Index registered 52.49, down from 53.24 four weeks earlier, suggesting a modest softening in personal financial confidence. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index rose to 47.65 from 46.57, but it continues to sit below the 50 mark that would indicate forward-looking optimism.
Longer-term context shows how subdued today’s readings are. Since 2008, the average BNCCI level stands at 54.87, reflecting periods of notably stronger consumer confidence in past economic cycles.
The near-neutral sentiment suggests Canadians are neither broadly optimistic nor deeply pessimistic about their financial situation or economic prospects. This balance could translate into restrained discretionary spending and cautious financial decision-making among clients, potentially dampening growth expectations in consumer-sensitive sectors.
The weekly survey is based on a rolling sample of approximately 1,054 Canadians aged 18 and over. Respondents are interviewed by telephone and asked about personal finances, employment security, the direction of the economy, and anticipated real estate price trends.
With broader economic indicators sending mixed signals, the steady but unenthusiastic tone of consumer confidence may complicate near-term growth and inflation forecasts.
