StatCan projects Canada’s population to 2075, outlining growth ranges vital for advisors
Statistics Canada has released new long-term population projections that sketch several possible demographic futures for the country.
Starting from an estimated national population of 41.7 million on July 1, 2025. The report models multiple growth paths based on varying assumptions for fertility, life expectancy, immigration and interprovincial migration.
By 2075, Canada’s population could range from about 44 million under a low-growth scenario to 75.8 million in a high-growth scenario. The medium-growth track places the population near 57.4 million.
While not forecasts, these scenarios provide useful planning inputs for professionals who build long-range financial strategies for clients, businesses and institutions. Population size also influences housing demand, labour market depth, government revenue, pension sustainability and healthcare spending; all key variables in retirement planning, portfolio construction and risk assessment.
Regional shifts
Regional shifts stand out as well. Ontario and Quebec are expected to remain the country’s largest provinces across all projection models. However, western Canada continues to gain relative weight.
Alberta is projected to surpass British Columbia in population in most scenarios, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan also increase their share of the national total. Conversely, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Quebec gradually represent smaller proportions of Canada’s population over the next quarter century.
These internal changes can affect regional real estate markets, municipal infrastructure spending, local employment prospects and provincial fiscal health — factors that may influence client decisions about relocation, property investment and business development.
Recently, Desjardins economist LJ Valencia released a report on the potential risks of population decline following an unprecedented drop in the third quarter of 2025 and warning that population growth in Canada is no longer a steady assumption.
StatCan notes that future outcomes remain uncertain. Shifts in immigration policy, changing birth rates and evolving longevity trends could all alter the trajectory. As a result, the agency emphasizes that these figures are tools for scenario analysis rather than precise predictions.
