Stable rates and cooling top markets redirect housing capital across Canada in 2026
Home prices in Canada’s priciest cities are set to fall next year even as the national market starts to “reset” – and that gap could matter for where clients deploy capital.
Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate home price in Canada will edge up 1 percent year over year to $823,016 in Q4 2026, with single-family detached prices rising 2 percent to $876,934 and condo prices slipping 2.5 percent to $563,918.
According to Royal LePage, this amounts to modest national growth after a turbulent 2025.
At the same time, the firm expects the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area to fall 4.5 percent to $1,054,129, while Greater Vancouver prices are projected to drop 3.5 percent to $1,147,868 in Q4 2026.
In contrast, the Greater Montreal Area is forecast to see a 5 percent gain to $676,725, and Quebec City is once again projected to lead major markets with a 12 percent increase to $501,984.
According to Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper, lower borrowing costs, more supply and less bidding pressure have created a more favourable environment for buyers, especially first-time purchasers and those in the most expensive regions.
He said many consumers believe the era of interest rate cuts is “near an end or at the end,” which removes some of the incentive to delay buying.
Royal LePage now describes 2026 as a “crucial reset year” after a misfire in its previous outlook.
The firm had labelled 2025 a “recovery” year, expecting a robust rebound on the back of high employment, anticipated rate declines and strong savings, but Soper conceded they got 2025 “completely wrong.”
He linked that reversal to “significant economic and political uncertainty” in 2025, including a trade war with the United States and a change in federal leadership that forced a recalibration of expectations.
Soper said the forecast did not anticipate the “scale and scope” of the US president’s rhetoric or how “aggressive” his trade policy would be, and that first-time homebuyers in particular pulled back as confidence “plummeted.”
On the rate side, the Bank of Canada cut its key rate four times in 2025, taking it down to 2.25 percent after an 18‑month easing cycle that followed two‑decade highs.
Economists widely expect the central bank to keep rates where they are unless the economy shows clear signs of weakness.
Royal LePage argues that “mortgage rates are no longer the villain,” saying borrowing costs have settled at levels that support “healthy market activity” and reduce fears of missing out on cheaper credit later.
Regional forecasts point to a patchwork of opportunities and risks.
In addition to projected declines in Toronto and Vancouver, the firm expects modest aggregate gains in Ottawa (up 2 percent to $788,970), Calgary (up 1.5 percent to $701,061) and Winnipeg (up 1.5 percent to $419,195).
Edmonton and Halifax are also expected to see prices rise no more than 2 percent in 2026.
Regina stands out among smaller markets, with Royal LePage calling for a 4 percent increase in the aggregate home price to $410,280, supported by strong demand, slower new construction and limited inventory.
Supply dynamics remain a key theme.
As per a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report cited by Royal LePage, combined housing starts in Canada’s seven major census metropolitan areas in the first half of 2025 stayed near record highs, just below 2024 levels.
Strong gains in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Ottawa have been offset by weaker investor demand and slowing pre‑construction sales in Toronto and Vancouver, where some projects have faced cancellations or delays.
Soper stressed that increasing supply “remains critical” for long‑term affordability and highlighted “missing‑middle” options such as duplexes, triplexes and townhomes as ways to add density without pushing sprawl further out.
He pointed to Edmonton and Calgary as examples of what can happen when construction policy focuses on flexibility and affordability.
On the policy front, Royal LePage notes that recent polling suggests Canadians are relatively satisfied with political leadership, which Soper said could allow more focus on housing policy.
He cited the 2025 federal budget’s funding commitments into the new Build Canada Homes agency and major infrastructure projects as groundwork, with 2026 set to test how well those measures translate into delivery.
Build Canada Homes, created in September, has earmarked six public land sites under the Canada Lands Company portfolio to deliver 4,000 factory‑built homes in its first initiative.
Royal LePage characterizes 2026 as a transition year in which improved affordability and less competitive bidding conditions continue to favour buyers, with activity expected to build gradually and potentially accelerate if economic and trade conditions stabilise into the spring.
