Gold jumps about 2% as investors hedge the Venezuelan shock without dumping equities
Investors are treating the dramatic US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as a risk event to hedge around, not a crisis to dump risk assets over.
Asian equities rallied hard while defence and haven plays caught a bid after the US said it attacked Venezuela over the weekend and flew Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to New York to face narco-terrorism conspiracy and other charges, according to CNBC.
An indictment alleged drug trafficking had “enriched and entrenched Venezuela’s political and military elite.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped close to 3 percent in its first session of the year, and the broader Topix hit a record high.
Defence names like Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained in the mid‑single digits, according to CNBC.
South Korea’s Kospi also hit record territory with a gain of more than 2 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, Taiwan and China’s CSI 300 posted smaller but positive moves, as per CNBC.
Bloomberg reported that US equity-index futures opened slightly higher in Asia, signalling no immediate rush for the exits in global equities.
Oil moved, but not in a way that suggests markets are bracing for a lasting supply shock.
In one early snapshot, US benchmark crude in Asia edged up to about US$57.44 per barrel and Brent to around US$60.89, according to The Canadian Press.
At the same time, CNBC said Brent slipped more than 1 percent before trimming losses to about 0.25 percent lower, with West Texas Intermediate down 0.4 percent.
Bloomberg reported that Brent fell as much as 1.2 percent to about US$60.
The backdrop matters here: Venezuela is a founding OPEC member and holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves at 303bn barrels, roughly 17 percent of the global total, according to the US Energy Information Administration as cited by CNBC.
But years of neglect and sanctions have left its oil industry in disrepair and it could take years and major investment before output increases meaningfully, The Canadian Press reported.
More importantly for near-term risk, Bloomberg reported that key facilities such as the Jose export port, the Amuay refinery and Orinoco Belt oil fields remained operational after US strikes.
Jung In Yun, CEO at Fibonacci Asset Management Global, said “The capture of Maduro can create a short-term risk-off sentiment in Asian markets,” but argued it was unlikely to become a “sustained oil shock.”
Kim Doo‑un of Hana Securities said the move was likely to drive a short‑term rise in oil and gold, and support the US dollar, Bloomberg reported.
Haven flows showed up, but again, not in a way that signals full-scale stress.
The Canadian Press reported that gold gained about 2 percent, with silver and platinum each up around 6 percent. CNBC said spot gold rose more than 1 percent to about US$4,383.99.
Bloomberg added that silver climbed as much as 1 percent.
Across outlets, the narrative was consistent: this was a classic hedge into gold and other havens on geopolitical tension, not a disorderly dash for safety.
For portfolio managers, the centre of gravity is still the US rates and earnings story.
On the first trading day of 2026, the S&P 500 rose about 0.2 percent to 6,858.47 after a gain of more than 16 percent in 2025, according to The Canadian Press.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed roughly 0.7 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite was marginally negative.
The Canadian Press noted that Microsoft and Tesla fell more than 2 percent after Tesla posted a second straight year of declining sales, with Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla again highlighted as outsized drivers of index direction.
In bonds, the 10‑year US Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.19 percent and the 30‑year climbed three basis points to 4.87 percent, its highest level since September, Bloomberg reported.
Marko Papic at BCA Research said investors should be “careful not to over‑trade” the Venezuela headlines and argued that a “major use of land troops is highly unlikely,” meaning fiscal outlays and bond yields “should not rise” on that basis alone.
On policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said modest additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, provided the economic outlook stays benign, Bloomberg reported.
The data calendar this week will feed directly into that rates narrative.
The Canadian Press said US reports on the services sector, consumer sentiment and the US labour market will help clarify how 2025 ended and what 2026 might look like.
Bloomberg added that markets will get November data on US job openings, quits and layoffs, the Institute for Supply Management’s December manufacturing and services surveys, October housing starts and the University of Michigan’s preliminary January consumer sentiment reading.
Looking ahead, Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, said “Equities will likely look through the headlines even if volatility rises, with rates and US specific catalysts ultimately driving market direction in 2026,” according to Bloomberg.
