Trump says US could acquire 50 million barrels from Venezuela, but experts do not expect heavy Canadian impact
Canadian crude is expected to remain a preferred source of heavy oil for US refiners even as Washington moves to ramp up Venezuelan production, according to recent comments from Prime Minister Mark Carney and market analysts.
BNN Bloomberg reported this week that Canadian oil markets “do not have to worry about Venezuelan oil substituting Canadian oil at US refineries — at least for now, according to one economic analyst.” The assessment is important for Canadian investors after the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro triggered a sharp debate over how quickly the South American country’s vast reserves could come back onto the market.
President Trump said Tuesday that the US could gain between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil from Venezuela, but speaking to reporters in Paris, Carney said Canadian oil remains competitive because it is “low risk”, “low cost” and “low carbon.” In comments reported by the BBC, he said Canada welcomed the seizure of Maduro, which “creates the possibility for democratic transition in Venezuela.”
Carney’s message to markets is that a more stable Venezuela does not automatically undercut Canadian supply. Canada is currently the largest oil exporter to the United States, and most of that crude is heavy oil from the oil sands, tailored to complex refineries that also once ran significant Venezuelan volumes.
In an interview with NBC News, Trump said he believed the U.S. oil industry could be “up and running” with increased operations in Venezuela within 18 months or less, “but it'll be a lot of money.” That timetable, and the scale of capital required, underline why Canadian analysts see the competitive risk as a medium- to long-term issue rather than an immediate threat.
CBC reported Carney’s view that the removal of an “illegitimate, corrupt, repressive” government in Caracas should lead to a “not-corrupt Venezuelan economy” that produces more oil, benefiting both Venezuelans and the broader hemisphere.
The strategic question for portfolios is how quickly US-backed investment can translate into reliable Venezuelan exports – and whether Canada can lock in its own “low-risk, low-cost, low-carbon” positioning before those barrels arrive.
